The latest estimates of blue crab populations in the Chesapeake Bay are largely encouraging.

The 2026 Blue Crab Winter Dredge Survey, released this week, estimates the total number of crabs in the bay is up 46% this year compared to last, and the number of juvenile crabs is up a mighty 121%.

“We saw a lot of good positive numbers this year, which we’re always happy about,” said Zach Widgeon with the Virginia Marine Resources Commission.

Not all of the numbers were on the plus side.

The study also estimated the number of adult female crabs is down 25% this year compared to 2025.

“We have a little concern about the females, and we need to certainly stay vigilant and pay attention,” Carrie Kennedy, tidal and coastal monitoring and assessment division director in fishing and boating services at the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, told WTOP.

Both agencies work together to produce the annual survey, and the results can vary widely from year to year.

A wide-ranging report due out in June looks into what factors may be influencing crab population changes in the bay. It’s called a benchmark stock assessment, and there hasn’t been one since 2011.

A draft version was released for peer review in March, and the Chesapeake Bay Commission heard a presentation about it earlier this month. While the latest peer review developed new methods of determining the population of blue crabs and their mortality rates, the researchers were unable to identify a likely cause for the population decline for female crabs this year.